Modelling NZ’s next Omicron wave – Expert Reaction

The researchers found that a second COVID wave arose in the latter half of 2022 in all their scenarios, smaller than our first wave and set to peak in August to November depending on how fast immunity drops. However, a higher peak of hospitalisations may occur if more older people get infected. Under a faster-waning immunity scenario with older ages more infected, this modelling estimates that as many as 46% of cases could be reinfections.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at